US Interstate I-20/59 and the Surprises of Life
The traffic flow in Birmingham, AL is normalizing. For the past year, one of the primary transportation arteries, I-20/59, has been totally out of commission as the Alabama Department of Transportation rebuilt a crumbling bridge in the heart of downtown. This week, it reopened, just slightly over a year from the time it closed.
For those of you not in the Birmingham area who can not imagine the import of what I just wrote, Bring to mind the the most important street in your city or town and consider what would happen if it were completely shut down. Not for an hour, or a day or a weekend, but for a year. That is what Birmingham, a top 50 US metro area, just experienced.
Imagine, the hand wringing, consternation, and catastrophic predictions that would precede such closing. No one would blame these expectations. Disruptions to normal routines compounded with more bottlenecks, wrecks, and concentration of long haul trucks into a smaller area with fewer exits points and you can easily guess the general expectations of the city.
On top of that, the promise of the pain only lasting a year for a project of such size was met with understandable cynicism. They were going to tear down and replace a bridge stretching through the entirety of downtown and rework the whole junction where two US interstates meet? Come on, now? There has been a pothole at the entrance to my subdivision for a decade.
This week the project was completed.....early. The road opened, and the traffic is flowing. And I can't stop thinking about it what a lesson this has been.
“We tell ourselves stories, back them up with disparate facts, and go out into the world to compile evidence vindicating our positions and dismissing anything contradicting how we believe. ”
You see, no matter how much logic, history, or even common sense an expectation may appear to have, it is only a expectation. It is a guess, a prediction, a speculation This is true for roads as we have just seen, but it is true for anything.
Your predictions about the direction of the market
Your analysis of the company you work for, or the stock you picked
Your expectations about the future of jobs, careers, your life
Your feelings about the economy, or politics, or your future health
All of these have narrative points making sense to us. We tell ourselves stories, back them up with disparate facts, and go out into the world to compile evidence vindicating our positions and dismissing anything contradicting how we believe.
When something happens in line with our expectation, we say "we knew it" and our over confidence grows. When surprise comes it is usually chalked up as aberration, an anomaly, to be rectified in time.
Something to think about as you listen to pundits artfully and authoritatively tell you what is going to happen.
With the market...
With the economy...
With the election...
With.......anything.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with having an opinion, but the world would be a better place if we just did so with a little more humility and more openness to surprise.